When the leverage of global banks goes up, countries experience both higher gross capital inflows and outflows, and global imbalances increase. Countries with higher net external liabilities against global banks tend to experience a larger drop in investment and a larger improvement in their current account balance following a deleveraging by global banks.
The U.S. would not have grown its way out of its WWII debt without interest rate distortions and primary surpluses.
This paper discusses the welfare implications of inter-generational transfers and debt rollovers in a stochastic overlapping-generations (OLG) economy where the growth rate is higher than the safe rate but lower than the average marginal product of capital.
Global financial shocks explain a substantial share of equity return variability, but a much smaller portion of real output fluctuations, in a large sample of advanced and emerging economies.
Sovereign state-contingent bonds have rarely been issued in practice despite their theoretical benefits. This paper provides support for this apparent sovereign noncontingency puzzle by deriving the impact of GIBs on the upper tail of the distribution of the public debt-to-GDP ratio.